Really appreciate the honesty here. That line about the firm vs. the next fund nails it.
It feels like this phase is less about capital formation and more about institutional formation …succession, continuity, and whether the firm’s identity can stretch beyond the founding GP (you). That’s not talked about nearly enough, especially considering that most superstar younger investors within evolving and maturing funds typically leave to start their own vehicles - take a look at Neda and Prelude just crushing it right now.
the second desert framing maps onto something I see on the operator side too — not in venture, but in independent practice. there's a first phase where survival is the organising principle. and then a second phase where survival is no longer the question and you have to figure out what you're actually optimising for. the metrics that kept you alive in phase one don't tell you much in phase two.
what you're describing feels like an identity question as much as a strategy question. the hard part isn't usually the work... it's that the old narrative about what you're building no longer applies and the new one isn't fully formed yet. the desert is mostly the gap between those two stories.
same dynamic we've been seeing from the founder side, where Series A founders are stuck between scrappy seed energy and Series B credibility, would love to hear how you'd map this to the founder journey
Great piece! And honestly a near-perfect analogy for the solo founder's path tbh. ✊
The 'first desert' maps cleanly onto early survival mode with existential doubt, searching for your first real believers, doing everything alone... and yet keeping pushing with more determination on every-set back to make a stronger come-back.
But the second desert is what hit harder: that moment when your early-stage peers fall away, the mentors who helped you launch no longer have relevant answers, and the questions stop being "will this survive?" and start being "what does this become?"
Which is probably an even lonelier, less-documented phase for founders (and almost no one talks about it).
I think the a16z is a very interesting case study to dive deeper on. How they moved from building a fund to building a firm. And I guess that's what it is. I worked at BlackRock and Larry Fink speaks a lot about running a small shop in the first days to a global company -> A similar journey in an adjacent world.
Really appreciate the honesty here. That line about the firm vs. the next fund nails it.
It feels like this phase is less about capital formation and more about institutional formation …succession, continuity, and whether the firm’s identity can stretch beyond the founding GP (you). That’s not talked about nearly enough, especially considering that most superstar younger investors within evolving and maturing funds typically leave to start their own vehicles - take a look at Neda and Prelude just crushing it right now.
the second desert framing maps onto something I see on the operator side too — not in venture, but in independent practice. there's a first phase where survival is the organising principle. and then a second phase where survival is no longer the question and you have to figure out what you're actually optimising for. the metrics that kept you alive in phase one don't tell you much in phase two.
what you're describing feels like an identity question as much as a strategy question. the hard part isn't usually the work... it's that the old narrative about what you're building no longer applies and the new one isn't fully formed yet. the desert is mostly the gap between those two stories.
SCREENDOOR MENTION. ty :)
Excellent post. As a Fund I manager, this hits home.
same dynamic we've been seeing from the founder side, where Series A founders are stuck between scrappy seed energy and Series B credibility, would love to hear how you'd map this to the founder journey
Great piece! And honestly a near-perfect analogy for the solo founder's path tbh. ✊
The 'first desert' maps cleanly onto early survival mode with existential doubt, searching for your first real believers, doing everything alone... and yet keeping pushing with more determination on every-set back to make a stronger come-back.
But the second desert is what hit harder: that moment when your early-stage peers fall away, the mentors who helped you launch no longer have relevant answers, and the questions stop being "will this survive?" and start being "what does this become?"
Which is probably an even lonelier, less-documented phase for founders (and almost no one talks about it).
I think the a16z is a very interesting case study to dive deeper on. How they moved from building a fund to building a firm. And I guess that's what it is. I worked at BlackRock and Larry Fink speaks a lot about running a small shop in the first days to a global company -> A similar journey in an adjacent world.
Keep going, Mr.
This is so relevant Charles. The game keeps changing and what it took to be established took won't look like what it took 10 years ago or more.
This was great! Takes different muscles to launch a fund than to build a firm.